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Pat Tholey ●
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psujmc1992 ●
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psujmc1992 said...
How is BYU ranked higher with a single 3-star commit?
I explained this further in my post that Pat very obviously ripped off.
It's in the attached thread.
Basically, team scores are calculated by sorting the grades of each player from highest to lowest. Then each grade, in order, is multiplied by a decreasing factor. The factor is determined by a Gaussian formula. The first factor is 1 (so a base score of 1x96 for Breneman), the second factor is 0.9862 (x95 for Hackenberg), third factor is 0.946 (x92 for Sickels), and the fourth factor is 0.8825 (x89 for Douglas). Then sum all those and you get 355.26.
The reason BYU is ahead of us is simply because they have more commits right now. When you have such few commits (3 vs. 4), the factors are still quite large, and thus it's very difficult to beat a team with even one more commit.
When you get into the range of more commitments (10-12), the factors get much lower, so it's easier to beat a team with more verbals.
Any chance?
Can we go the whole day until 7:00 PM EST. without an Adam Breneman post or thread?
pennstate.247sports.com psubills62 ●
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psubills62 said...
I explained this further in my post that Pat very obviously ripped off.
It's in the attached thread.
Basically, team scores are calculated by sorting the grades of each player from highest to lowest. Then each grade, in order, is multiplied by a decreasing factor. The factor is determined by a Gaussian formula. The first factor is 1 (so a base score of 1x96 for Breneman), the second factor is 0.9862 (x95 for Hackenberg), third factor is 0.946 (x92 for Sickels), and the fourth factor is 0.8825 (x89 for Douglas). Then sum all those and you get 355.26.
The reason BYU is ahead of us is simply because they have more commits right now. When you have such few commits (3 vs. 4), the factors are still quite large, and thus it's very difficult to beat a team with even one more commit.
When you get into the range of more commitments (10-12), the factors get much lower, so it's easier to beat a team with more verbals.
Great explanation and I have to be honest, i didn't do the math. Developers hooked me up with a script that I ran with Breneman added to the commit list.
247Sports Network Manager - ptholey@247sports.com - Twitter (pt247)
Pat Tholey ●
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Pat Tholey said...
Great explanation and I have to be honest, i didn't do the math. Developers hooked me up with a script that I ran with Breneman added to the commit list.
It's not too difficult if you know the equation (and I've worked with Gaussian equations, so easy enough). Just plug into an Excel spreadsheet and fill down.
Honestly...a month or so ago I had some free time, so I got the notion to try and figure out how your rankings were calculated simply based on the available data (at that point, Bama had 7 commits and the most anyone else had was 5). It took me a few hours, but I figured out the formula. Then, just before I was going to ask someone like yourself WHY you used that formula to calculate the points....I noticed the small "i" for information next to the Team Rankings title that explained everything.
It's true what they say about book smarts.
psubills62 ●
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thomasbrady
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Pat Tholey said...
Great explanation and I have to be honest, i didn't do the math. Developers hooked me up with a script that I ran with Breneman added to the commit list.
You find out life's this game of inches, so is football. Because in either game, life or football-the margin for error is so small. -Pacino
tmaluchnik
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psubills62 said...
I explained this further in my post that Pat very obviously ripped off. It's in the attached thread.
Basically, team scores are calculated by sorting the grades of each player from highest to lowest. Then each grade, in order, is multiplied by a decreasing factor. The factor is determined by a Gaussian formula. The first factor is 1 (so a base score of 1x96 for Breneman), the second factor is 0.9862 (x95 for Hackenberg), third factor is 0.946 (x92 for Sickels), and the fourth factor is 0.8825 (x89 for Douglas). Then sum all those and you get 355.26.
The reason BYU is ahead of us is simply because they have more commits right now. When you have such few commits (3 vs. 4), the factors are still quite large, and thus it's very difficult to beat a team with even one more commit.
When you get into the range of more commitments (10-12), the factors get much lower, so it's easier to beat a team with more verbals.
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@tmaluchnik said...
It'd be a fun addition to the site if that script was made available. Would be fun to input players to see how it effects rankings, such as inputting players we think might commit to us and inputting where we see other players committing to other schools.
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Pat Tholey ●
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thomasbrady said...
I've worked with Gaussian equations in the past, but I find it outdated. I have come up with my own equation system, called The Blackholian equation. Basically, I am able to predict where a recruit is going to end up and if he will make it into the NFL. I have taken so far that right now I am able to predict within 0.000001% if the HS recruit will become a Probowler. Now bear with me here as I try to explain a bit how it works with two current Penn State verbals ( Hackenberg and Breneman) * yes, I am including Breneman, because I can predict who is going to verbal.
Are any of you familiar with the t-square theory? It is a theory by Johnathan "t-square" Marlbro, who was a rapper who left the life of rapping to become a Mathmatician. He is one of my heroes, and a brilliant man in his time.
T-square theory basically is the result of ++X-++//$. It was started by Einstein, but Einstein left out the $ in his theory. Jeesh... leave it up to a rapper to add the $ sign, right? But I digress, it was a BRILLIANT move!
So, you take Hackenberg and you automatically add the ++X- , if you divide that by the games he plays in his career and add it to number of passes he throws to Breneman, you get ==X-XXX. And if you then take Breneman and you add the usual ++r+ and add that to the number of games he plays.... you should come up with x++r-t==y.. or, in plain English.. Breneman becomes a Hall of Famer , Hackenberg is a first round pick and has 1 or 2 Pro Bowls in his career.
You can't be upset with these results, but if you are.. it is not my fault. Math does not lie!
"People ask me why I stayed here so long, Look around, Look around, I stay here because I love you all" R.I.P. Joe - 12/21/1926-01/22/2012
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