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Iowa Prediction Thread

  • Score: 34 to 13 PSU
    O MVP: McGloin, D MVP: Hodges
    Interesting Stat Line: Defense gets 3 INTs, with two of them from DBs (their first two of the season)
    Off the Wall Prediction: Score is 31-6 at halftime

    BoulderFish

  • I think Iowa's defense is good, but at this point I feel that people are severely overrating it. We'll just have to see.

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    psubills62 ●

  • BoulderFish said...

    What makes you think Iowa has such a great (or very good) defense? It's not like they've played a bunch of offensive powerhouses.

    I don't see any evidence that their defense is any better than NW's. Both gave up 13 to Minny, NW gave up 41 to Syracuse but that was week 1, Iowa gave up 32 to C. Michigan just three weeks ago, NW held Indiana to TWENTY less points than did OSU. And we put up 39 on NW, with a good many points left on the field.

    Iowa's defense looks to be right there in the ballpark with NW's. IMO we will be the best offense that Iowa will have faced -- and maybe by a lot.

    We'll find out tomorrow. That's the beauty of these debates. :-)

    I hope you win this debate, I just don't think you will. We haven't scored 40 points against anyone, including worse defenses. This DL is better than what we've faced all year, and our OL isn't exactly full of world beaters. MM has been very lucky to avoid the turnovers this year. He has improved a great deal, that's unquestionable, but he's also had a good bit of luck with turnovers that could run out at any moment. Most of our offensive players have never been in an environment like this (MM has, Robinson has a bit and a few OL, but the RB's, WR's and TE's haven't for the most part, nor have some of the OL rotation).

    I really think you guys underestimate them by a lot. I do think we are the better team. Their offense has some major problems.

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    #DicedPineapples

    shavisimo2 ●

  • shavisimo2 said...

    I hope you win this debate, I just don't think you will. We haven't scored 40 points against anyone, including worse defenses. This DL is better than what we've faced all year, and our OL isn't exactly full of world beaters. MM has been very lucky to avoid the turnovers this year. He has improved a great deal, that's unquestionable, but he's also had a good bit of luck with turnovers that could run out at any moment. Most of our offensive players have never been in an environment like this (MM has, Robinson has a bit and a few OL, but the RB's, WR's and TE's haven't for the most part, nor have some of the OL rotation).

    I really think you guys underestimate them by a lot. I do think we are the better team. Their offense has some major problems.

    I hope I win it too. ;-)

    And for the record, I'm not saying I think we score 40+ points (My "prediction" in this thread is 34 though). I'm just saying that if we do, it wouldn't be, and shouldn't be surprising -- IMO.

    I think it's within the "reasonable" realm of possible outcomes.

    If you're a statistics guy, let me put it this way... If I were to plot the expected number of points we score playing Iowa 100 times, I think there would be a bell curve around 25 points. And 40 points would be within two standard deviations of that average.

    BoulderFish

  • shavisimo2 said...

    No it's not. If we were playing Illinois again this week, I'd agree. Same with Northwestern, Navy, Temple or Virginia. But Iowa has a very good defense. The others aren't sure what defense means. That's like saying the defense is putting it together after allowing between 3-10 points for a few weeks straight against poor offenses and then saying we could probably get a shutout against OSU. Sure, it could conceivably happen, but the chances are very small.

    If we are judging with the Iowa D being the determining variable then I also say yes it is absolutely possible. Any D any day can give up 40.

    I don't think we will. Not because of Iowa D which I like, but because of their offensive style of play. And lacking enough possessions and time to do so.

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    Seltz ●

  • BoulderFish said...

    I hope I win it too. ;-)

    And for the record, I'm not saying I think we score 40+ points (My "prediction" in this thread is 34 though). I'm just saying that if we do, it wouldn't be, and shouldn't be surprising -- IMO.

    I think it's within the "reasonable" realm of possible outcomes.

    If you're a statistics guy, let me put it this way... If I were to plot the expected number of points we score playing Iowa 100 times, I think there would be a bell curve around 25 points. And 40 points would be within two standard deviations of that average.

    I guess is it's a semantics thing. Your OP said "very reasonable possibility." To me, a very reasonable possibility would be at least a 20% chance (not likely, but pretty reasonable chance). That's far within 2 standard deviations. I guess if your meaning of very reasonable possibility is something like 5%, then we're just on different terms. And giving up to two standard deviations is a huge amount of leeway.

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    #DicedPineapples

    shavisimo2 ●

  • shavisimo2 said...

    I guess is it's a semantics thing. Your OP said "very reasonable possibility." To me, a very reasonable possibility would be at least a 20% chance (not likely, but pretty reasonable chance). That's far within 2 standard deviations. I guess if your meaning of very reasonable possibility is something like 5%, then we're just on different terms. And giving up to two standard deviations is a huge amount of leeway.

    2 standard deviations is about 14 or 15 percent from the top and bottom limits, I believe?

    So, 20% (which I think is fair for the chances of us hitting 40) isn't THAT far within 2 standard deviations.

    BoulderFish

  • Iowa forfeits because Iowa state beat them in every baking competition at the state fair this week and they have no confidence left. PSU 1 IOWA 0 by forfeit...

    Goalieman688

  • BoulderFish said...

    2 standard deviations is about 14 or 15 percent from the top and bottom limits, I believe?

    So, 20% (which I think is fair for the chances of us hitting 40) isn't THAT far within 2 standard deviations.

    I believe 2 is 2.5% from the top and bottom.

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    #DicedPineapples

    shavisimo2 ●

  • BoulderFish said...

    2 standard deviations is about 14 or 15 percent from the top and bottom limits, I believe?

    So, 20% (which I think is fair for the chances of us hitting 40) isn't THAT far within 2 standard deviations.

    2 standard deviations covers about 95% of possible outcomes. So people outside 2SD are REALLY crazy.

    This post was edited by psujmc1992 on 10/19/2012 at 2:29 PM

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    “We need to keep this (expletive) together,” Mauti and Zordich to Hill

    psujmc1992 ●

  • shavisimo2 said...

    I believe 2 is 2.5% from the top and bottom.

    Ok, then in that case... I think scoring 40 is within ONE standard deviation. NERD!

    cool

    BoulderFish

  • You guys are starting to get too academic......keep it to sports! hahaha no

    PSU2001

  • What makes me confident is hearing Iowa's DEs haven't been getting pressure. If we give Mcgloin time, we should win.

    98lion

  • One, Iowa has never faced this offense. The past years our offense has played to Iowa's strengths, but this year I feel the coaches will spread Iowa out and make them very uncomfortable. Oh, Michigan State is so overrated, so I was no impressed with that win by Iowa last week.

    NittanyAlum80

  • NittanyAlum80 said...

    One, Iowa has never faced this offense. The past years our offense has played to Iowa's strengths, but this year I feel the coaches will spread Iowa out and make them very uncomfortable. Oh, Michigan State is so overrated, so I was no impressed with that win by Iowa last week.

    Can't argue with that logic!

    Our strength is our front 7 and it will force Iowa to throw the ball in order to move the sticks. Iowa's strength is their defense against the run. We shuold pick their defense apart with the short pass over the middle. I see lot's of TE pass receptions tomorrow night!

    Iowa will move the ball, but not at will. The Hawkeyes will be hard pressed to score more than 17 pts. And if PSU holds them to 17 pts., the Lions' offense should easily put up 27+.

    WE ARE...

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    psufankc63


  • Score: 38 - 20 PSU
    O MVP: McGloin, D MVP: Barnes
    Interesting Stat Line: Defense gets 5 sacks, Lehman with 2 TDs
    Off the Wall Prediction: PSU holds Iowa to 75 yards rushing

    PennStateFan33 ●

  • Hamilton Lion said...

    Some of these scores lead me to believe we are playing Indiana this week, not Iowa in Iowa City.

    not gonna say i disagreed with you, because i agreed with you... but nom nom nom crow nom nom

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    ejb5212

  • JaxLion82 said...

    PSU: 38 - 13
    MVP: McGloin (> 300 yds passing / 2 TDs passing / 1 TD Bunny Hop)
    Interesting Stat: Iowa Rushing < 50 yds
    Off the Wall: Pick 6 for PSU

    Good guess Jax!!

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    I_Billieve

  • psujmc1992 said...

    Penn State 28-13
    MVP: Belton, >100 yards rushing/receiving
    ISL: Iowa less than 100 yards total offense in 1st half
    OtWP: No 1-yard rushing TD's by McGloin, Zwinak or anyone else.

    Not too shabby

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    “We need to keep this (expletive) together,” Mauti and Zordich to Hill

    psujmc1992 ●

  • psujmc1992 said...

    Not too shabby

    Close enough!!!

    "One man didn't build this program and one man sure as hell cannot tear it down."

    LaJollaLion

  • BoulderFish said...

    Score: 34 to 13 PSU
    O MVP: McGloin, D MVP: Hodges
    Interesting Stat Line: Defense gets 3 INTs, with two of them from DBs (their first two of the season)
    Off the Wall Prediction: Score is 31-6 at halftime

    I'm feeling pretty good about this right now. :-D

    BoulderFish

  • BoulderFish said...

    I'm feeling pretty good about this right now. :-D

    I thought it would be a close game. I wasn't sold on our OL yet, but they are legit.

    "One man didn't build this program and one man sure as hell cannot tear it down."

    LaJollaLion

  • All4PSU said...

    27-10 PSU
    MVP - Mauti on D, McGloin on O
    Defense holds Iowa to less than 225 total offense and forces 3 TO's
    McGloin completes 70% of passes and strings 10 straight completions in a row

    Think I or the MVP's right
    Total offense For Iowa 190 and we got he 3 TO's
    McGloin completed 68% and only completed 8 in a row - loser!

    What a fun game to be a part of!

    All4PSU

  • All4PSU said...

    27-10 PSU
    MVP - Mauti on D, McGloin on O
    Defense holds Iowa to less than 225 total offense and forces 3 TO's
    McGloin completes 70% of passes and strings 10 straight completions in a row

    Think I got the MVP's right
    Total offense For Iowa 190 and we got he 3 TO's
    McGloin completed 68% and only completed 8 in a row - loser!

    What a fun game to be a part of!

    All4PSU

  • I_Billieve said...

    Good guess Jax!!

    Thanks....blind squirrel found a nut!

    JaxLion82

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