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Don't shoot the messenger: Jones and Flounder's PSU predictions

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    Hamilton Lion

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    "One man didn't build this program and one man sure as hell cannot tear it down."

    LaJollaLion

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    getmyjive11

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    Hamilton Lion

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    "One man didn't build this program and one man sure as hell cannot tear it down."

    LaJollaLion

  • LaJollaLion said...

    Wisky lost two freaks at OT, and OG, Watts, and their QB, but PSU is the only one with question marks.

    yes, exactly. A lot of predictions are myopic -- guys look at the question marks on PSU and assume it means disaster, while they are ignorant of (or just ignore) opponent weaknesses so assume they will be powerhouses.

    For example, it's ridiculous to predict a loss to NWern when Persa may not yet be healed enough to start the season! And on one Husker board they are concerned about their O-line -- coaches were so desperate for an OT that they shifted a DT over just like PSU did with Okoli, but Nebraska's is a RS freshman! And lets ignore the new coordinators at Nebraska and Wisconsin, or most of the defensive stars graduating from Illinois.

    All this is what makes college football so much fun to follow, and it's also why preseason predictions aren't worth the pixels they're printed on.

    This post was edited by jetli on 8/28/2011 at 2:47 PM

    jetli

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    Hamilton Lion

  • So many times that is the case. Taking the worst one could do and comparing it with the best the other could do.

    I think 8-4 is realistic, but then so to is 10-2. Taking out the above common issue of only assuming one team will answer questions, and figuring they will all answer some not all.

    >10-2 Will need some breaks, would have to win some tight ones, tough to achieve any year nearly everywhere
    10-2 figuring 2 between Bama/Wisky/OSU/Neb(that gauntlet at the end is going to be tough but fun), win a close 1-2
    9-3 would be a legit one to predict, easily realistic
    8-4 seeing those teams listed above, even winning some gotta watch a NW road gm and always @ PSU watch Iowa
    7-5 getting less likely now IMO, with much talent and experience, but of course it is a possibility and also realistic
    6-6 much less likely unless we are back to assuming we answer nothing and everyone else finds answers

    Bama is the only one I think has the ability to out-man us, but not a given(location and young/new QB)
    OSU has more talent,not at the landslide level some say,when experience is taken into account we can play with em
    Neb we match up well with in talent and the rest...our field is a nice plus there
    Iowa, as has occurred many times, we should, on paper, have them...but..(scream in frustration here)-
    winnable though
    Wisky we play well. Anyone having us "done" doesnt look well at the matchups IMO. I expect a close slugfest myself
    NW people should not sleep on them. Odd schemes and solid fundamentals. People who bring less than best through the years have gotten hurt.
    Illinois I think we handle in a revenge type game. Almost always have talent here and there, so cant overlook.
    Purdue/Indiana - I dont overlook anyone, but I wont be chalking these up to losses preseason to say the least
    Temple dont want to come out sluggish, but think we can out-man them
    ISU/EMU shouldnt be contests really

    I just see us bringing a lot to the table ourselves. Question marks for PSU arent automatically a given for failure in that area and overall, to me.

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  • Seltz said...

    So many times that is the case. Taking the worst one could do and comparing it with the best the other could do.

    I think 8-4 is realistic, but then so to is 10-2. Taking out the above common issue of only assuming one team will answer questions, and figuring they will all answer some not all.

    >10-2 Will need some breaks, would have to win some tight ones, tough to achieve any year nearly everywhere 10-2 figuring 2 between Bama/Wisky/OSU/Neb(that gauntlet at the end is going to be tough but fun), win a close 1-2 9-3 would be a legit one to predict, easily realistic 8-4 seeing those teams listed above, even winning some gotta watch a NW road gm and always @ PSU watch Iowa 7-5 getting less likely now IMO, with much talent and experience, but of course it is a possibility and also realistic 6-6 much less likely unless we are back to assuming we answer nothing and everyone else finds answers

    Bama is the only one I think has the ability to out-man us, but not a given(location and young/new QB) OSU has more talent,not at the landslide level some say,when experience is taken into account we can play with em Neb we match up well with in talent and the rest...our field is a nice plus there Iowa, as has occurred many times, we should, on paper, have them...but..(scream in frustration here)- winnable though Wisky we play well. Anyone having us "done" doesnt look well at the matchups IMO. I expect a close slugfest myself NW people should not sleep on them. Odd schemes and solid fundamentals. People who bring less than best through the years have gotten hurt. Illinois I think we handle in a revenge type game. Almost always have talent here and there, so cant overlook. Purdue/Indiana - I dont overlook anyone, but I wont be chalking these up to losses preseason to say the least Temple dont want to come out sluggish, but think we can out-man them ISU/EMU shouldnt be contests really

    I just see us bringing a lot to the table ourselves. Question marks for PSU arent automatically a given for failure in that area and overall, to me.

    Great post...there is a reason why they still play the games. Fair breakdown IMO. PSU could step back and could take a step forward...we'll find out soon enough.

    "One man didn't build this program and one man sure as hell cannot tear it down."

    LaJollaLion

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    BoulderFish

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    BoulderFish

  • Seltz said...

    So many times that is the case. Taking the worst one could do and comparing it with the best the other could do.

    I think 8-4 is realistic, but then so to is 10-2. Taking out the above common issue of only assuming one team will answer questions, and figuring they will all answer some not all.
    I just see us bringing a lot to the table ourselves. Question marks for PSU arent automatically a given for failure in that area and overall, to me.

    Well put! You and Lajolla are on point.

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    PSUTimm

  • I think we have the talent on the field to be 11-1. The only team I see that that has pure talent levels that we just don't match up with is Alabama. I don't think we have the experience and/or confidence to be 11-1 though, especially going to Wisconsin and OSU. Every team is almost always replacing experience, maturity and leadership; where I think PSU struggles maybe a little more than some of the other "Elite tier" programs, is that our coaching perhaps doesn't transition and develop as well as it should when it has new faces in key positions. Where other programs seem to be able to plug in new names with seemingly very little to no drop off, PSU's bump in the road just seems to be a little bigger and results in 1 or 2 losses that we should not be having.
    And then there is the in-game stuff, particularly on the road with "new" teams, that can be disturbing, almost always results in an ultra conservative L, and play calling that you could swear could be called quitting.

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