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Unit by unit, here is how I see it...
QB - Slightly better with PJ as a backup and an extra year for the Mox.
RB - Slightly better *if* they stay healthy. Redd + Belton = a pretty good 1/2 punch. I liked Beachum, but the kid just wasn't the same last year after coming back from his injury.
WR - Worse. I hope the young guys come out and play better than expected, but losing Moye is definitely a negative.
TE - Upgrade. AS and Haplea were below average last year. You just watch Gilliam and James in the B/W game and the difference really pops out at you. And Haplea is still there as like the #4 TE. The question for me is, how will Carter do? IMO, he is perfect for an F TE in BOB's system.
OL - Upgrade. Yeah, there will likely be a learning curve, but the OL the last few years has been pathetic. Better coaching, better talent, better S&C. It should yeild better results.
DT - Downgrade. Anytime you lose a 2nd rounder, it hurts. Hopefully Hill, Jones and Co can elevate their game. Can't wait to see Zettel in passing situations.
DE - Upgrade. Lattimore and Crawford were the most frustrating DE's to watch. Prototypical size, but they were rarely factors.
LB - Push. I only say this because we don't know what we will get out of Mauti, and we don't fully know how Roof is going to use them. I still expect big things from them.
DB - Downgrade x100. I have faith in Amos and Willis. Everyone else I am scared about. You got to hope that DT gets his stuff together and can perform like the 4 star he was coming out of high school.
Special Teams - Upgrade. I mean come on... they got to be better, right?
So yeah.. it's one of those teams where they could be great or mediocre and neither would surprise you. With BOB coming on board, it's not even worth giving PSU a preseason ranking because no one knows really what to expect.
I honestly don't see DB as a "downgrade x100."
I mean, everyone we "lost," never did anything. Sukay was awful and couldn't tackle a crash dummy. D'Anton Lynn was always out of place, never anything more than average, and was just plain bad after his injury against EMU. Astorino was decent his final year, but still small, slow, and a liability in coverage. And Chaz Powell's biggest achievement at CB was picking a fight with that 5'5 kid on Temple.
The only two players from that unit last year worth a darn are Morris and Amos and both are back. With Thomas having the ability to be better than anyone who left last year. The depth is definitely a problem, but I think the actual starting 4 in the secondary will be without a doubt much better.
This post was edited by RWC5113 2 years ago
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Delete - Double post
This is a joke
Bingo. People really need to read and understand this but won't and don't.
The 1-3 finish probably inspired that ranking.
I think we could be very good this year.
-We really don't know how much coaching will improve, especially on offense. Game planning, in-game coaching, etc. will all be improved, but how much?
-I love the leadership. Mauti, Hodges, Hill, Zordich, McGloin, Redd, Brown...very underrated, and something that I think helped last years team.
-What about defense? Will it be the normal stout PSU D?
-HIT to FITZ is pretty important too, when you are talking about OL.
There's so many questions that no one can truly know the answer to because for the first time in 45 years, Penn State Football will be totally different.
I think we could end up being very good...but, I wouldn't be shocked if we ended with 6 wins either. I think the 50th ranking is fine.
I have no idea how this season is going to play out, none. But I'm sure I'll talk myself into some completely unrealistic expectations before all is said and done. The key is talking myself into Matt McGloin being much better this year due to an offensive system that is better in general and specifically better for his skill set. I'm working on it. I think I can get it done by game one.
I agree with both of you we are going to have our struggles with the O side of the ball and 8-4 season would be an awesome season for a rebuilding year. We are going to be pretty evenly matched our first two games and these games are going to be a test on just how good the new coaching staff has prepared the team from Fitz to Mac to BOB. I always remember those terrible OCC games when we had a new OL like Akron 2006 and Syracuse year escapes me where we had absolutely no run blocking because of a poor O line. If we have better results from our O line against Ohio and Virginia we might have some hope if not we might have a tough October and things will start to look up in Nov.
agreed, this is a joke. Seems that nothing changes. I know we probably arent top 25, but anything outside of top 35 is a joke, even in our worst years
Haters gonna hate
PENN STATE FOREVER
I see 8 & 4, with a little luck.defense should be fine if we can get pressure on opposing QB's to help out young secondary. Offense needs young receivers (Lewis) to step up right away, no more you've paid your dues, you play first (seniors, upperclassmen ), if you've got the talent you play. Key to offense has to be limit McGoin's mistakes. If only he was as talented as he thinks he is, we'd be in Big Ten Championship Game.
This post was edited by pipedope 2 years ago
I can completely agree with the assessment. We won 9 last year but a bunch of those were heart-attack games. My instinct was to be hopeful that we could build upon 9, but
Temple by 4, Indiana by 6, Purdue by 5, Illinois by 3 don't inspire much confidence.
This will be a better team by the end of next season. 7 is very possible. But I also think 7 is the lower limit. 8 or 9 if the team can avoid a few game-day breakdowns.
Wish it was at least top 50, but, he says nothing that isn't true.
I agree with those posting that we will be better by season's end.
"Not to mention the shift in schemes will cost us at least one game, almost all teams under new coaches experience this in the first year."
Huh? Where does that number come from? I'm sorta guessing its completely made up, without any basis in fact.
In this particular situation (PSU v. 2012), I think the change in coaching scheme and staff might actually be an upgrade, especially on offense.
I think JVP was the greatest college football coach in history, but largely because of how his teams performed on the field 1967-1999, and all of his off-the-field accomplishments (Great Expmt, philanthropy, etc). As much as I was a supporter of JVP, I think his offensive teams of the 2000s had become stale and had dropped a bit.
I'm not saying that B'OBs 2012 team will be better coached than JVP's of 2011. But I am saying it wouldn't surprise me if the coaching change was a net positive, and to say PSU's team of 2012 will be one game worse before we've seen these guys on the field is a little silly.
There are so many factors to take into consideration this year it is nearly impossible to try and predict how this team will finish. They are some positives, new S&C, better offensive philosophy, a good front 7, etc.. and some negatives, players have to learn a new offense and defense, thin secondary, etc... for me 8 wins will be the benchmark. 8 or more it's a successful season, less and it will be a disappointment but as long as we go to a bowl I think it will be a salvageable season.
Dominate The State
I plan on making a shit-ton of money betting on PSU this year against the spread.
It comes from going through the same type of change when I was in college. Early on we lost 2 games to teams we would have beaten if we had the technique and comfort in the system that we had at the end of the year. We eventually ended up with a top 5 offense in the nation that year, but a giant shift in scheme and going against new faces in games does affect that.
Also, you can look around at other colleges and see teams with brand new coaching staffs who, in their first year, lose games they shouldn't because their teams don't have a full grasp yet.
This team will be better at the end of the year. Our scheme is better. Idk if our HC is better yet, but no one does. I firmly believe us to have a better program game 12 of the year than last, but I do not know if our record will reflect that. Transistions are not seemless.
I agree to an extent but alot of times a coaching change is the result of poor results on the field. Our situation is different from those in that our coaching staff didn't have several bad years in a row that resulted in them getting fired. We don't have a new coach because we don't have good players. I agree that the coaching change will cost us atleast one game early in the season but I think the roster has enough talent to overcome alot of the mental mistakes that are bound to occur this year.
I still dont' get the mind set that the "coaching change will cost us at least one game".
How do you separate a change in coaches/scheme from a change in players?
Consider the following possibility.
Game at UVA. PSU leading by 6. 1:06 left. UVA has the ball 3rd and 7 at midfield. PSU sends a LB and safety, plays man to man with a single safety high for help. PSU CB bites on a fake, stumbles, WR shakes loose, safety doesnt get over in time, and WR scores on a 9 route.
Did PSU lose because of aggressive scheme?
Did PSU lose because of lack of athleticism (speed) from the safety?
Did PSU lose because of lack of experience from CB (biting on fake)?
Did PSU lose because there was a piece of loose turf that the CB slipped on?
My point is this--if PSU loses a game, how do you know its due to coaching scheme, and not other factors?
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