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Thought I'd bring this up, as I know people on recruiting websites are generally interested in their team's recruiting ranking. Also, I think a few people have sig bets on whether Penn State is in the top 25 for 2013.
So the question is: will Penn State end up in the top 25 of either rankings?
I actually think the calculations for the Composite are off. Based on my attempts at recreating the numbers, I think they're ordering the ratings incorrectly. This means I can't get an accurate read on what exactly each team needs to jump us, so I'll have to base it on eyeballing.
We are ranked 22nd in the Composite, which means 3 teams can jump us and we'll still be in the top 25. Based on a combination of how far teams are behind us and their "Targets" listing, I think these are the possibilities of teams that could end up with better scores:
UNC - The big target for UNC is Marquez North. He's rated 0.9570 in the Composite, and since UNC is only ~2.5 points behind us, I think he'd be the clincher. There's a couple other prospects, but I think they'd either need North or multiple other guys.
Miami - Only 9 points behind with 13 commits. And they're in on a lot of big names, including 5* prospects Alex Collins and Matthew Thomas. It would be surprising if they missed on both of those. At this point, I think it would be surprising if Miami didn't end up ahead of us.
Tennessee - UT is coming on strong with several prospects, including 5* Carl Lawson. They sit 14.5 points behind us, but that can be made up by getting a few surprise top kids. Tennessee is fighting UNC for Marquez North, and might be the default choice for 5* Vonn Bell. Not to mention high 3* Davin Bellamy. I believe it would take about 3 of these 4-5* kids to commit to UT for them to jump us, but it's possible.
Mississippi State - They were ahead, but lost WR commit Corey Smith to OSU, and so now they sit about 2.5 points back, also. It looks like they should get a few 3*, which will probably put them above us. The key to watch here is the crown jewel of MSU's class - 5* DE Chris Jones. For a while, Jones had reportedly refused to talk to any other schools (which is why he has so few offers), but he made a surprise visit to Ole Miss and is now going to decide on NSD. If Jones heads to Ole Miss, then unless MSU pulls out some extraordinary surprises, they won't be passing us.
My gut feeling is that we end up right at 25 in the Composite. Not certain, but hopeful. Just need to hope that Chris Jones goes to Ole Miss and Tennessee does not close as well as it should. I think those are our best bets.
We're ranked 23rd here, so only 2 teams can pass us to remain in the top 25. Teams that could pass us:
Clemson - 4.7 points behind us, and they supposedly lead for 5* Montravious Adams. Just one top prospect and I think we're going to be breathing their dust. And since Clemson always seems to pull out at least one signing day surprise, I'd expect them to pass us.
Tennessee - They're a little farther behind here, about 18 points, but with the same potential listed above. It would take a decently strong close by Butch Jones for them to pass us, but still very possible.
Miami - Pretty far behind in these rankings, they sit 22 points back from our current score. However, as mentioned above, they're either leading or co-leading for several very good prospects. With so few commits currently, even one 5* addition should add a significant number of points. Simply getting Matthew Thomas and no one else, for example, adds 19 points to their score. Yet again, I'd be surprised if they didn't pass us.
Again, keep an eye on Chris Jones and MSU/Ole Miss. Miss State sits about 1.3 points above us, and losing him would cripple their class.
I don't know what's going to happen here. There seems to be very little certainty as to where some of these prospects are going. I think we might end up out of the top 25 in the 247 rankings.
Anyway, those are my thoughts. There's probably a few other teams that have a chance at passing us, but it might take quite a bit.
I said a month or so ago that I thought we would end up in the 25-30 range. I still believe that.
As an aside, I think that someone on tBB pointed out that there was an error with the composite calculation as well. That was a few months ago.
Team rankings is tough - because if you sign a ton of recruits like 25 or more, you get points based on every recruit you sign.....so might be hard with our limited class to stay in the top 25.
Yes, but with 247's formula, the more recruits you sign, the smaller effect each one has in adding to your score. That's why Miami has a lot of score potential with only 13 commits compared to other teams.
Apparently North eliminated UNC. Makes things interesting, and positive news for PSU's ranking (IMO).
Going to Tennessee
Side note: I'm baffled as to how anyone could spend significant time on either the UNC or Tennessee boards. Those light colors against the white kills my eyes. It's even worse late at night when f.lux dims my monitor a little.
FWIW, 247 updated their code tonight and now the Composite scores are calculated correctly. Looks like a few of our prospects got small bumps in the Composite (meaning they were bumped on other sites). Hartman is now a Composite 3*, Neiko Robinson's grade is a bit higher IIRC, Anthony Smith is a tad higher, Jordan Smith's dropped, the others I'm not sure I remember what they were before.
Rankings are based partly on sheer volume of recruits. In theory, if Hackenburg was off the board and replaced with a handful of 4 stars, our ranking would be much higher but the team would be worse off. I will take the franchise QB. This class, while small is loaded with game changers IMO.
we're right around 25 in 247 composite average player rating too.. impressive job by the staff to stay competative in recruiting after having to clean up the biggest mess any program has had to go through.
Right on! Even finishing with a Top 40 class is a great achievement considering the circumstances. Hopefully within the next year or so, PSU gets a break in the sanctions too.
Sort of. 247 really made an attempt to correct for this because their system gives progressively smaller bumps with each commit, so after 17, the bump is much less significant than than the bump after your first commit. So yes, volume counts, but quality is the biggest factor here (hence why USC is 6th with just 14 commits).
Arkansas made a huge surge with Alex Collins committing. They're just over 2 points behind now in Composite. Since it looks like they'll get a 4* and another 3*, they could jump us...barely.
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