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The Lions' Pride

Black shoes, basic blues. No names, all game

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SIAP: Paul Jones to Robert Morris University

  • It will have no real impact.

    Basically we are restricted to handing out 15 scholarships to the incoming class next fall. We have the normal allotment of 85 scholarships available to the entire team. Paul's departure will have no effect on the 15 number, we will still be limited by that. His departure does mean that his ship won't have to be counted against the 85 total ships number but we weren't going to use up all 85 anyway (technically some walk-on deep on the depth chart might get it but that's the only impact).

    That said, it might make a difference come the fall of 2014. At that point the 65 scholarship restriction kicks in on top of the incoming class restriction of 15. Whether the 65 scholarship restriction will be a gating factor or not is unknown. Since, had he stayed, Jones' ship would have counted as one of those 65, it's possible that his departure might help. My personal belief is that the 15 initial counter restriction will be the big one, not the 65 overall number. If that turns out to be true, then Jones' departure means little (other than some walk-on will get a ship that he wouldn't have otherwise).

  • Probably helps PSU b/c it gets rid of whats essentially be a waste of a scholarship. PSU can't afford to be wasting scholarships on kids that won't contribute in some fashion. I wonder if BOB and staff may have tried and force PJ out b/c they knew he'd never play QB and didn't want to switch positions.

    Dominate The State

  • Golson was a three star? I thought he was a 4 or 5 star athlete?

    But yes, your point about stars don't matter holds true. Klein is a stud, McCarron is solid, Murray is good, Mariota is good. More about the system and the coaching than the star count.

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    ‏@Cordale10 Why should we have to go to class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain't come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS

  • I wouldn't say "stars don't matter". there is too much evidence that they do. However, they mostly matter on a population level. When you apply the population level rules to individuals the predictive ability falls apart. If you take the top 10 ranked QBs in any class, I could say with 95% confidence that more of them will be successful college players than those ranked 100-109. Obviously, some of those top 10 kids might be busts and a couple of the 100+ ranked kids might end up being good, but again, it's about the odds.

    The fatal flaw in the rankings is their inability to account for the mental aspect of the game. They heavily weigh things like arm strength, size, speed, and success in HS (which is VERY different from major D1 ball) yet, often do not account for things like ability to read a defense, ability to make decisions in fractions of seconds, leadership, memorizing playbooks, etc. etc.

    If anyone is familiar with stats, specifically multiple regression, you can see how we can plug the variables of size, speed, arm strength, accuracy, and HS success into the equation and get a decent prediction. However, without any predictors from the second set, you are missing a huge part of the variability in the outcome. Obviously you'll never account for all the variability, but I'd suggest that second set of predictors accounts for as much or more of the variability than the first set for kids that meet a minimum threshold on the first set. That is, that they have the basic size, speed, arm strength, etc to at least play at this level. If you take that group and rerun the regression, I'm pretty confident that the second set of predictors (mental, intangible) would be weighted the same or higher than the first set (measurable).