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At no point in his minor league career has he shown this type of power. He is on pace to hit over 50. Sorry. He isn't that good. Something seems off here.
I don't think most people expect him to reach that 50hr pace. He's always been projected to have 30hr power if he put it all together. He's on a torrid streak right now. His FB/HR rate is off the charts and he's healthy and confident. Every time a kid brakes out we don't have to start talking PED's. Brady Anderson was a longtime big leaguer with a track record. The minor leagues do not a track record make.
He hit 14 in 09 and then 22 in 2010 (20 in minors and 2 in majors). He was considered an elite power prospect who was still learning to hit and hadn't come close to filling out his frame (still has plenty of room to grow if he wants to go that route). He's starting to pull the ball consistently for the first time in his life and is on an unreal month long tear. It's surprising insofar as any tear like this from a formerly struggling player is surprising. But the fact that he has great natural power is not remotely surprising. He's always hit the ball a mile when he made good contact. He's a big kid who can absolutely crush it when he gets his arms extended.
There are a ton of reasons why he's finally showing this type of power... Just a few:
Dom's always taken his athletic ability for granted and didn't put much work into his body until after Hunter Pence arrived. The first offseason after Pence arrived, he took Dom under his wing and they worked out hard everyday. Dom admitted he'd never done that much work before. He did it again last offseason on his own. You can see the results when you look at the guy. He's probably the biggest guy on the team.
Also, you can't say enough about the hamate bone he broke a few years back. If you look at the picture I attached, you'll actually see that in 2010 (before the break) between both levels he was on pace for a 33 HR season if he got 600 AB's. After the break he would only average 15.. You can call it a coincidence if you want, but I don't think so. It's been widely reported that players don't fully recover their power from a hamate break for 12-18 months. For whatever reason it took him the longer amount, but it seems the power has finally come back.
He's shortened his swing considerably. You wouldn't know because you don't see him everyday, but his swing has improved tenfold since he got called up. It helps that the player with one of the shortest and most powerful strokes in the game is on the same team.
But if it makes you feel better, or validates your opinion any, 6 of Doms homers last month were "barely out" and wouldn't have left most ball parks. CBP has its perks. He's definitely gotten lucky, but to make those types of claims without doing your homework isn't a nice thing to do.
EDIT: Also, he's going to fall off a little bit, probably ending up with somewhere around 35 dingers. Thats the type of hitter his 2010 (pre-hamate bone break) numbers suggested he would be in the majors.
This post was edited by chasfcd11 10 months ago
Stop ... you don't all the sudden hit all these homers without a reason. This kid has been a disaster in the pros and Philly fans have been waiting for him for it seems four years. Disaster everytime he is called up and then this? Yep, it makes sense. He became McGwire overnight it seems. There is something going on.
In hockey, someone like David Clarkson can go from five goals to 30 in a season. However, when someone like Brown shows average power at best and then goes to Herculian power overnight - that should lead to questions.
So, this is the work of Hunter Pence? LOL
This post was edited by Hamilton Lion 10 months ago
Ahh, the broadcast last week said 15 was his most in a season, including the minors. They must not have added the different levels. That's my bad (and probably McCarthy, cause it doesn't seem like something Wheels would get wrong or Sarge would even bother looking up).
You are correct. There is a reason (reasons). He got healthy, got stronger, got with new hitting coach Wally Joyner who changed some things including simple stuff like how he holds the bat in his hands, and got hot for a month. "Average power at best" is not an accurate statement. He's always shown excellent power, he just wasn't making good contact. You're acting like a still young player who was arguably the best prospect in baseball a little over two years ago having a torrid stretch is a crazy thing.
You can question it, but there are pretty simple answers. None of this is to say it's impossible that he's on something. I don't trust any of these guys.
I hate Chris Wheeler so I blame him.
Your conspiracy theory might make some sense if he wasnt hitting line drives over the wall. He's not hitting tape measure shots. The dudes 6'5" after all and if he was juicing he'd be enormous.
And that 2010 minor league season was even more impressive from a power standpoint because he hit those 20 home runs in only 343 minor league AB's. There's a reason he was considered such an incredible prospect. He started 2009, first season in Clearwater, hits .303 with a .903 OPS. Gets called up to Reading later that year and does pretty well for his first AA experience. Starts 2010 in Reading and proceeds to hit .318 with an OPS of .993, incredible stats for a first full year AA player. Gets called up to LHV later in 2010 and hits .346 with a .951 OPS in 107 AB's there. Gets called up to the big club later in 2010. So he goes from first year in Clearwater in 2009 to in the majors later in 2010. And he crushed the ball during that stretch. Then the various issues came starting in 2011 and his production dropped dramatically over a two year stretch.
He made some adjustments and regained his form this spring training (on fire, crushing the ball), struggled at the beginning of the regular season, got hot, and now we're here. Again, it's not surprising that he's hitting for power. He was always considered an elite power prospect. It's just surprising that he's gone on this ridiculous tear after struggling so much at the beginning of the season. I'm just enjoying it while it lasts.
Why should we have to go to class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain't come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS
In 2010 Brown was 22 years old... he was a baby... Hitters tend to peak around 27years old, a bit older for a pitcher.. not every player is Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. They don't all break onto the scene have immediate success and never look back... its a process and a process the Phils may have mishandled in hindsight due to maturity issues, etc prior to this season.
As gem said, in 2010 prior to injury he had a .284 ISO in AA, and had cut his K% down to 18%, or exactly where it is today. He has grown as a hitter and as a player... the scouts saw the raw tools when he was being hyped as a 22/23 year old kid... now he is growing into the skill set, its not that hard to imagine.
Now he is 25 years old... The difference of 3 years and 1100 AB's, 600 at the major league level is a life time for a young hitter.
Since May 1, the Brewers are 10-24. Five of those wins came against the Phillies in the past nine days. Dom Brown is the only reason to watch this team.
This post was edited by miegoc 10 months ago
He's on fire plain and simple... He seeing the ball and not just hitting hrs, but getting base hits.
Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good.
Brown is the only reason to be excited about this team. Lee has pitched really well, but he pitched a stinker last time out. Blew a four-run lead when the Phillies really needed him to be on his game. They're no better than a .500 team.
Brown may be the only reason to watch, but it's embarrassing how Phillies fans are supporting him in the All star vote. He's not even in the top 15 OF.
As of May 22nd, his avg was 248, his OBP was 290 and he had a decent, but nothing special, 8 hrs. Sure, he's been great for about 3 weeks, but nobody saw that coming and nobody realized how great of a streak it would be until about 10 days ago. Tough to accumulate that many votes in that time when people don't realize and nobody outside of Philly has heard of you in a positive light until two weeks ago.
You can look at it the negative way (no surprise) but youre ignoring the amount of attention he's gotten over the past month. The guys been better than Miguel Cabrera for the past 40 days and you're telling me no ones heard of him? I realize the limitations his ASG potential has because he's only been good for a short while but how would you explain Paul Goldschmidt? He gained 500,000 votes in a week. He's having a similar year (better) than Dom in a much smaller market, so... What gives?
I know it'll pick up, but I'd like to see some results because 1) Nothing else to root for with this team and 2) he deserves it.
Wait what? This national attention started like two weeks ago. He's on a 17 game hot streak. That's it. He hasn't been destroying it all year. Assume people took notice of it 7 games in (the first 6 he had 3 hrs to bring his total to 11, but the 7th was his first of 2 out of 3 games with 2 hrs). So people, both in Philly and around the league barely noticed him until May 29th (I think it's very fair to say this, but maybe you'll take 6 games in, so people noticed him on May 28th). At that point his avg was still only 262 and his OBP was still under 300.
Then factor in that votes were tallied on the 8th, so games up to June 7th. That means people had a chance to really come around on him for about 8 days. And how many people thought "well he's been pretty hot lately, but I don't know if a couple weeks is worth an all star vote.
Anyway, he might deserve to be an all star (I wouldn't put him in my top 3), but no need to pretend like he's been getting major recognition for a month.
As for the differences with Goldschmidt, you have two fronts. One, he was a known quantity before this year. Two, EVERYONE in Arizona would be voting for him from day one of voting because he's the man there. In Philly, Dom Brown was an afterthought until two weeks ago.
Also, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez have really separated themselves as NL OF who "deserve" to be all stars. The third slot would include a few guys vying for it, including Brown, in my book.
This post was edited by shavisimo2 10 months ago
I hear what you're saying, but we all know voting for the All-Star game is a popularity contest. Every year there is a guy or two who don't deserve to be there let alone starting. Even with his red-hot play, Brown is still an unknown to some casual baseball fans. Some may remember him as a top-five prospect of a couple years ago. What matters is Dom is continuing to play well as the homers slow. You're seeing double-digit hit games and walks. He's having very good at-bats even without the homers. And don't look now, but he's actually been playing a good left field. Don't worry too much about the voting. He's making the All-Star game. No question about that.
This team is awful
hoping charlies presser last night lights a fire under this team.. doubt it tho... heading to the game now as a matter of fact.
It won't, but I'm still heading down at noon today. At least I can drink my way through today's game.
Inebriated might be the only sane way to watch this team. Good luck to you.
Hope you were two (or seven) sheets to the wind watching that 9th inning. Good grief.
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