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I am posting this primarily because I finally sat down and ran through this empirically and came up with something I hadn't before understood. Looking for confirmation or not on what I've found.
A couple notes in case anyone wonders: These scholarship numbers assume the following:
We don't take anymore recruits in this class.
We redshirt every single player in this upcoming class except for Ferguson (I understand this won't happen, but the only effect is a slight decrease in the cushion during the 2017 season when it is already very large)
I have already subtracted Kerner and Franklin from Scurry's scholarship table to get the initial scholarship numbers.
Essentially what I've found is that as we move through the sanction years, the interaction of the 65 scholarship limit, the 15 original scholarship per year limit, and the ability to backcount early enrollees creates a very interesting pattern: the cushion for players we can lose before going below 65 grows as we move forward. This is shown below in blue. That is the primary take away from this work. The equation for the cushion is Cushion = (Available Early Enrollee Spots + Maximum Original Scholarships Available For That Eligibility Clock) - (Total Scholarship Limit - Projected Occupied Scholarships Before Enrollment of Freshman Class).
For further clarification, the checkered patterns you will see represent when a players eligibility begins. For example, in the 2014 column, the 8 represents players who enroll in the 2014 class (their eligibility clock therefore is 2014), while the three below and to the left are also players whose eligibility clock begins in 2014, but have been counted toward the previous classes scholarship limit. This pattern repeats itself as you move right. THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO UNDERSTAND. The ability to backcount players whose clock begins one year to the previous year means we can bank scholarships in the current year. Each year the number we can bank grows due to the equation shown above. The number we can bank is therefore equivalent to the cushion.
So what does this mean? Well, a few things..
One: This is what Obie and company absolutely must understand: You need to take as many early enrollees each year as are available, at least for the first few years of the sanctions. As you get to 2016-17 this becomes less of an issue IF attrition is minimal. An early enrollee spot not filled is a WASTED BANKED SCHOLARSHIP.
Two: When a player leaves early, they drop the cushion by one for every year of eligibility they had left. Therefore, when players leave with only one year left (say, ARob next year or Smith/Barnes two years from now), it has minimal effect. But if, say, Hack hates it here and leaves in the fall, the cushion drops by one for every year he has left.
Three: Basically this is the takeaway: things aren't that bad. So long as we don't experience a large degree of attrition after this spring, we should be ok.
Four: We actually, and this is bizarre, can take a class of up to 37 in 2018 as it stands. The cushion will change, however, to only 11 due to the equation outlined above. The issue is because we gain an extra 20 needed scholarships to max out. With a cushion of only 11, it will obviously be difficult to get there when the time comes, but we will certainly be able to get into the 70s.
Five: This table will give us a tool to track our situation over the next few years. I will try to keep it updated as players come and go to show where we currently stand.
I hope this is clear to people. I've spent the last several hours on this (I know, I know, but I got sick of my school work and needed a more productive enterprise to engage in), and I believe it is correct. I'm hoping for feedback, though.
This post has been edited 6 times, most recently by leftcoastlion 18 months ago
“We’re doing things we couldn’t imagine,” says safety Stephen Obeng-Agyapong. “But we’re doing them together.”
Didn't we discuss how his table was wrong just yesterday?
And I didn't read the whole post, so I can't tell you if there is an issue off hand. Just know that your base scholarship table was wrong 24 hours ago.
I have no idea, but I checked scurry's table and took out Franklin and Kerner. It otherwise looked up to date. Even if it isn't, it's not off by more than one or two, which doesn't have much effect.
Edit: In fact, I'm sure Scurry's table once you get Franklin and Kerner out is accurate.
This post was edited by leftcoastlion 18 months ago
Well that's debatable in an every 'ship counts situation (just busting your chops). Either way I know I had to list out every guy on the 14 team by class to show it was wrong, which was massively annoying but got the point across.
As for the spreadsheet itself, without seeing the formulas/equations going into it I wouldn't want to lock it in as right. I do trust you, as your are generally solid with these things, in being at least not wrong and having strong and sound methodology.
I back checked, and you are right, but not in the way you might have thought. It only effects the 2014 and 2015 cycles, and it decrease the cushion by one in 2014 and increases it by two in 2015. So the original point clearly holds entirely. I'll update it to reflect that.
Considering he's a JR I wouldn't expect it to affect much more than that.
I don't think your numbers are wrong (like I said without diving into the formulas), I think there could be an argument, centered around quality, for years like this year and what its relationship to the EEs.
I have high hopes these sanctions will be reduced. If not, assuming no Juco players & no one leaves & everyone redshirts as you say, we dont get back to our 85 limit until 2019 due to the limits in scholarships to 15 / yr & 65 total, then 25 / yr & 85 total.
YR LIMIT TOT FRESH RS SO JR SR TOTAL
2013 15* 85 12/ (5ee) 14 13 11 11 66
2014 15* 65* 10 16 14 14 11 65
2015 15* 65* 11 10 16 14 14 65
2016 15* 65* 14 11 10 16 14 65
2017 25 65* 14 14 11 10 16 65
2018 25 85 25 14 14 11 10 74
2019 25 85 21 25 14 14 11 85
Did you read my post at all?
I think Scurrys table left Ficken out, which would explain why you have 54 for next year and I have 55. I think it was a math error which didnt count him. Also, we don't have a 75 man limit this year.
I think its neat to see that huge class ee can take at the end, I'm really looking forward to that.
Thanks for putting this together.
Thank you for posting this. I am an excel monkey and second MTay..it is somewhat hard to follow without looking at the formulas...as for formatting busch league..
I can't figure out why that rumor about our being restricted to 75 ships this year persists. It continues to pop up despite it constantly being corrected. It's not like there's some source out there perpetrating the rumor but for some reason our fan base continues to think there is this 75 limit.
Does it matter? We are below it anyway. I just threw a number in there. It's a meaningless placeholder.
There aren't any formulas you need. You just have to carry out the work. It doesn't take very long. Start with the current scholarship projection and work forward.
And the formatting is messy because it has to be. It is a multi-time dimensional problem.
It doesn't matter from your perspective but it does perpetuate the falsehood.
Who calculated this? U or urschel?? Impressive work. Still trying to wrap my head around it.
Which one? ;-)
For those out there who are into statistics and advanced mathematics, this problem is an excellent example for modeling with linear equations. It's been 20 years since I've had to use a linear equation to model a problem like this, but I'm sure there are posters here up to the challenge. Let's hope someone steps up.
October 12, 2013. PSU 43 - UM 40 (4 OT). Unfortunately this fan wasn't around long enough to see it!
Basically in 2018, the first year that we are back to 85, we can have a huge class. We can bring in 25 new 2018 schollies and at least 10 EE schollies that would count against 2017. With a coupe of EE's every yr, at least 3 should be the goal, that could give us the potential for a 2018 class of 38. Taking 38 freshmen would likely not be a grwat idea however, so I would think that we either would carry soe EE's into 2019, or try to bring in a corp of Juco players to add depth to our upper classmen ranks. That could help us rebalance our team out a little. Bottom line in 2017 we should have 65 total schollies and 16-20 seniors (depending on redshirting). Thus, we would have the potential to take 10 EE's (maybe more with EE carry over) to count against 2017 when our limit goes back to 25/yr and we will be replacing around 15. Of course redshirting may be difficult due to lack of depth. Also, we may use some of that initial bolus of scholarships to reward run-ons or entice run-ons to come to PSU and compete for a scholly.
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