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These have been talked about alot but IMO there are 4 main things that can happen over the next 12-18 months that could greatly increase the chances that the sanctions against PSU are reduced. I give each a percentage as to how much I view each event as increasing the chances the sanctions are reduced.
1. Spanier/Curley/Schultz are acquitted or the charges are dropped - 50%
IMO this is the single greatest event that could occur over the next few months that would result in the sanctions being eliminated or reduced. This would singlehandedly change the narrative about what happened at PSU and would destroy the credibility of the Freeh Report and the NCAA sanctions. However, I could also see the NCAA making the argument that they are not held to the standards of the criminal courts and therefore their burden of proof is much less.
2. PA lawsuit survives a motion to dismiss and discovery begins - 35%
While this would definitely be a win for PSU, as the NCAA would fear the potential loss of a anti-trust suit and potentially painful discovery, I'm less convinced than others that getting past a motion to dismiss would automatically result in the NCAA reducing the sanctions. First, the NCAA may be able to drag the lawsuit along to a point where the sanctions are over or nearly over and any reductions would simply allow PSU to recover sooner as opposed to suffering the brunt of the sanctions. Second, the NCAA relied primarily on the Freeh Report in handing down its punishment and there is a chance the discovery process may not reveal the type of damning information that people were hoping for. While I agree that the NCAA would not want PA's lawyers digging through their internal memos and minutes, there may not be enough there directly linked to PSU to help the cause as some assume.
3. The cumulative effect of other lawsuits begins to have an effect on the NCAA - 10%
The NCAA is engaged in a number of legal actions against it and some have argued that the NCAA may be willing to concede on the PSU sanctions to focus it's efforts on lawsuits that directly pertain to NCAA governance. While that is a valid argument I don't think that these lawsuits will effect the organization as much as some would like. First, the NCAA has alot of money and I'm sure they have the financial where withall to withstand multiple lawsuits. Also I'm not sure that any of these suits will progress quickly enough to have an effect on the NCAA before the PSU sanctions have mostly expired.
4. Mark Emmert is fired - 5%
As the calls for his head continue to be heard from the media many people have speculated that if Emmert were to be fired, a new NCAA President would be more willing to reduce the PSU sanctions. While that may be true, I don't think Emmert getting fired would help PSU's chances of getting the sanctions reduced. Whoever would be taking over for Emmert would be taking over an organization in crisis and would almost certainly go into damage control mode. However, I'm not sure that would result in the PSU sanctions being reduced. Yes the sanctions are Emmert's baby and he was the one who almost singlehandedly strong-armed Erickson into accepting them but I don't think a new President would rush to reduce them. It would set a bad precedent for other schools, in that it would portray him as weak and would encourage other schools to challenge the NCAA when it was at its weakest. Also, the NCAA would be all but conceding that it did not have the power to punish PSU, something most organizations don't do willingly.
These are just my thoughts. Let me know what you think and whether you think the percentages are correct.
Dominate The State
I agree with those. I think #1 is higher than 50% though. It'll be interesting to see about the GJ leak and the Baldwin dual representation issues. These are huge so I think the likely hood of them never going to trial is fairly high.
Plus there is probably going to be more litigation coming that could be a number 5 on your list.
Zero % chance the sanctions will be reduced. I've stopped thinking they might. The major players haven't even seen court yet and we are now beginning year two of sanctions. By the time everything shakes out they will be over.
50/50. They will be or they won't be.
Nice write up.
I don't know about putting a percentage on it, but I would put the Corbett lawsuit above the Curley/Schultz trials. If the TC/GS charges are dropped, I feel the NCAA will just say what you talked about. The NCAA is not the same level as a criminal court and the burden of proof is much lower. Hell, they didn't even feel the need to do their own investigation.
You're right that the NCAA just might stall if they get past a motion to dismiss, and I agree there might not be much about PSU in their memos, emails and minutes. (I also think there might be, these are unbelievably arrogant people). What I don't think the NCAA wants is PA lawyers stumbling across something about UNC, or Auburn, or USC, or Miami or name your case that they don't want used against them. I feel the NCAA has a whole lot of dirty laundry they do not want aired. Also, there is a chance (although from what I've read it might be small) they might lose a case, even if they stall it out. The NCAA obviously doesn't want to lose an anti-trust case.
Freeh being totally discredited I feel would be a slam dunk, but I don't believe that will happen.
I think they will be reduced a bit and I think it will come out of a settlement from the Corbett lawsuit.
You're forgetting about the reports that come from Senator Mitchell... Emmert could cite those reports as his proof that he "fixed" PSU and reduce the sanctions himself to take some of the heat off. I doubt that will happen, but it's still something to think about.
I read the OP wrong.
I agree with the 0% chance unfortunately. The NCAA will never for any reason voluntarily reduce the sanctions. The lawsuit even if successful will take years. I mean the Univ of Buffalo case is 10+ years.
I sincerely hope I am wrong and want so badly to believe there is a chance but I just don't see it.
That there is a quality post. Well thought through, reasonable and non-biased. Well done sir. I was hopeful that Emmert would have been fired by now. I think this plays a larger role in the sanction reduction. If he loses his job, it is a big blow to the credibility of his actions, especially when the NCAA ignored their own internal by-laws in handing down the sanctions without full input.
I give it 0%. Unfortunately I tend to be always right. Hope I'm wrong this one time!
The only drawback is you only have 4 or so members on the BoT willing to fight for this. Even if the charges are dropped, will the current leadership actually ask for the reductions? The NCAA and Emmert sure as hell won't because he would have to admit he worked outside his own process and state he made a mistake. Even if he sugar coats it with the PSU has been a good boy clause, he is admitting he made a knee jerk reaction. I haven't seen any part of the EGO known as Emmert that leads me to believe he can admit fault. I think those of us who follow PSU are a bit to optimistic that anything will occur IMO. The tide is slowly turning, but something will have to come out that clearly says this was utter BS and the guys up there really were naive to what was occurring.
The breakdown is fair, but I just don't think the NCAA blinks until they are forced to. All the lawsuits outside of the school won't matter until the school actually stands up for itself. Maybe something new comes out if the charges are dropped and those up there can speak freely, but I'm not counting on them being dropped anytime soon. I think I've been just beaten down to much the last 2 years to think otherwise. I'm not a debbie downer, but I don't have much faith in them being overturned anytime soon. The old "I'm hope I'm wrong" line is about all I have left.
This post was edited by LaJollaLion 16 months ago
"One man didn't build this program and one man sure as hell cannot tear it down."
Not a lawyer, but see the Gov's case as having the greatest liklihood of success in reducing sanctions. Sure the NCAA could stall, but as they do wouldn't they be risking the easiest remedy if they are found to be in the wrong? If they indefinitely stall and the sanctions have run out, what kind of penalty would/could a court impose? As I said, I am not a lawyer, but that would seem to be quite a risk.
I'll be an optimist and say 1% chance. Barring an NCAA collapse or damning evidence to prove everyone's innocence on PSU 's part I see no reason to reduce them. Like a stubborn parent the NCAA will stick with the punishment just to prove they can...
Wow. I am the only optimist on the board today. I think 100% chance they get reduced, 50% chance Emmert is gone soon, and a 3% chance the NCAA is a crater hole in 4 years.
not that it matters much, but we do get 3 more for the good guys soon so we'll be at 7.
Just curious. What do u think the reduction will be?
Probably a year off for "good behavior" per Mitchell. You folks have to remember, the NCAA has never had so much legal pressure at one time. Miami will sue, other Penn Staters will sue. We haven't heard the last from Lubrano, et al. We still have Oregon in play for investigation. Plus the perjury charges will be dropped soon. I sincerely think Emmert has taken on too much water and is listing. Just need one new wave...
One thing that hasn't been discussed much is the implication of a new university president. Erickson is done in June 2014..
I'm optimistic also. If the NCAA's motion to dismiss the PA lawsuit fails I think the other NCAA bigwigs will turn on Emmert. They will not want to risk discovery of *all* of the NCAA's dirty laundry because of Emmert's foolish moves. Emmert will then be pushed out and the new NCAA regime will end the sanctions with some sanctimonious "PSU has really improved their ways" bull manure statements.
I'm starting to think this is what will happen. The narrative is really starting to change and people are starting to step back and ask if PSU really deserves what they got from the NCAA. I think the charges will get dropped, PA's lawsuit proceeds to trial, and the NCAA settles by making 2014 the last year of the sanctions by saying that PSU has basically done everything they have asked them to do. That ends to bowl ban a year early and the scholarship reductions 2 years early. Not the best outcome but based on how certain things are progressing I think it's a reasonable assumption. The Miami case will be interesting because if they get hammered I think they sue and also that Shalala calls some of her friends on Capital Hill. If that happens Emmert may lose his job and things could proceed more rapidly.
Who cares? OBrien builds a National Championship caliber team in his third year of sanctions and embarrasses the NCAA and the B.S. scholarship reductions!! He goes undefeated and in his final game after beating a clearly inferior team, he looks directly into the camera as Erin Andrews interviews him, and makes the "dynasty symbol" and says that he loves those "fuc*ers"!!
This post was edited by stormpsu1 16 months ago
Actually the scholarship reductions would be 3 years early if 2014.
People forget the penalties were not 4 years. It was 7.
No bowls: 2012-2015
75 scholarship limit 2013
15 scholarships per year 2012-2015
65 scholarship limit 2014-2017
There isn't a 75 limit this year. Its at 85 this year then drops straight to 65.
Thanks for clearing that up. I meant to hit 3 and must have hit 2. Regardless, IMO that is the best case scenario moving forward. Another question, how much will PSU be able to backfill classes later on in the sanctions. Say a JUCO kid wants to come to PSU and he has 1-2 years left to play in say 2016. Will the class size restrictions still count, will he count toward the 65 limit? After 2017 can PSU load up on a bunch of JUCO's in years where their numbers were down?
This post was edited by PSUJT0409 16 months ago
Well the current board hired the search firm, so there's that.
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