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shavisimo2 ●
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NotoriousG-Man said...
Well, good news is... if they decide to tear it down in another six weeks, they will have some players to move to rebuild that farm system. We'll take Victorino and Hamels in Detroit for Castellanos and Turner... Fix 3B for the next decade for you, and a legit young stud with "potential" to be an ace.
Hamilton Lion ●
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shavisimo2 said...
They started to show their age in about 2010. The bats disappearing began in the middle of that season and all the guys really started their declines along with hitting the injury bugs. Absent Victorino and Ruiz, everybody began to rapidly decline in 2010 continuing through 2011 and only worsening now. The signs have been on the wall for a long time, but Amaro was too stubborn to notice and made too many poor decisions before that it was going to happen like this. I still think they have a good shot at the playoffs, and who knows what happens once you're in in baseball, but the signs have been around for a while to those Phillies fans who paid attention (which is not the typical fan).
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NotoriousGMan
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Hamilton Lion said...
Heard the interview. I think it goes deeper than that as well. Bottom line, the farm system is dried up for the most part due to trades. There are few answers on the farm right now that can provide anything. Galvis is up and he could very well be a full-time answer down the road. Philly has had to rely on Wiggington, Nix and others - this was not in the plan. Philly will continue to shell out the $$$ on free agents, but it needs to get back to developing talent on the farm. They really have no trading chips right now - not even Dom Brown.
shavisimo2 ●
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shavisimo2 ●
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Hamilton Lion said...
I'm not a Phillies fan. I'm a fan of a team that hasn't won in 19 years.
I think Hamels will be with the Dodgers next year. They will have tons of jack to throw around. JMO, this is the reason some of these teams signed some of their pending FAs already - Matt Cain got that ridiculous deal in SF and a few others.
shavisimo2 ●
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shavisimo2 said...
They started to show their age in about 2010. The bats disappearing began in the middle of that season and all the guys really started their declines along with hitting the injury bugs. Absent Victorino and Ruiz, everybody began to rapidly decline in 2010 continuing through 2011 and only worsening now. The signs have been on the wall for a long time, but Amaro was too stubborn to notice and made too many poor decisions before that it was going to happen like this. I still think they have a good shot at the playoffs, and who knows what happens once you're in in baseball, but the signs have been around for a while to those Phillies fans who paid attention (which is not the typical fan).
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NotoriousG-Man said...
I would love to watch him every night...I saw all four AB's sunday, and thought he looked really good. I was excited to see he took two walks last night, because he hasn't been a big BB guy, but off Volquez, it may not count.
I understand how minor league numbers work, but also see a pattern, a pattern of hitting v every level of competition he has ever faced, that is usually what translates.
As far as lefties, again he is young, and it takes time. But there are not a wealth of big time lefties in the NLC, so that will help too..
You are right about Craig, but it will be a struggle for the Cards to keep he and Beltran healthy the rest of the year. The AB's will be there for him.
MTayl72 ●
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white_out said...
I joked around after 2010 that the Phillies should have shopped Utley to the dodgers for a malcontent matt kemp, who was trying to get out of LA.
Essentially Amaro needs to build from scratch. The have a 2nd baseman in Galvis, but will he ever hit enough to be a 150 game player?
They have an aging 3rd baseman in Polanco, an old SS, a broken down 2B and a 1st baseman who's coming off a potentially career crippling injury.
Hunter Pence is a stud, but lacks discipline.
Victorino is a little guy with a big swing, but WT power.
Mayberry is a very very intriguing guy. In some ways reminds me of Bernie Williams. He's fast, but a long strider, so he's not a threat on the bases to steal, and just oozes athleticism.
Ruiz, as most catchers has a 3-5 year window (Pudge and Jorge not withstanding).
I like this jake dieker kid, alot. Not sure if he will be a closer, but he could be a lock up 8th inning setup guy.
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white_out said...
I joked around after 2010 that the Phillies should have shopped Utley to the dodgers for a malcontent matt kemp, who was trying to get out of LA.
Essentially Amaro needs to build from scratch. The have a 2nd baseman in Galvis, but will he ever hit enough to be a 150 game player?
They have an aging 3rd baseman in Polanco, an old SS, a broken down 2B and a 1st baseman who's coming off a potentially career crippling injury.
Hunter Pence is a stud, but lacks discipline.
Victorino is a little guy with a big swing, but WT power.
Mayberry is a very very intriguing guy. In some ways reminds me of Bernie Williams. He's fast, but a long strider, so he's not a threat on the bases to steal, and just oozes athleticism.
Ruiz, as most catchers has a 3-5 year window (Pudge and Jorge not withstanding).
I like this jake dieker kid, alot. Not sure if he will be a closer, but he could be a lock up 8th inning setup guy.
shavisimo2 ●
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NotoriousGMan
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restoreThe ROAR
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shavisimo2 said...
Galvis will be fine as an everyday guy. Mayberry is an afterthought and should not be relied on. That's the biggest difference in our views on this team. I think he's great as a bench OF, but not much more. I don't think he'll ever be a good hitter. He's athletic, sure, but will never be a anything more than an average major league OF, and I think average might be a bit of a stretch. Ruiz is Ruiz, luckily he still has a couple productive years left to bridge the gap to Valle (hopefully). Polly should never have been relied on. Jimmy's contract is outrageous, but the market was very thin at SS and they didn't know what they had in Galvis or when Utley was coming back, so it was him or spend a ransom for Reyes. Pence is quality as is Vic. Diekman looks like he could be solid. Time will tell and bullpen arms vary drastically from year to year. The starting pitching in the minors should come up and keep the rotation solid for a while to come, but there aren't many pieces in the batting order.
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Hamilton Lion ●
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white_out said...
If they don't trade Hamels (for someone like Trumbo and Williams), then Amaro needs to put the checkbook away and go through the rebuilding process and not touch any of the A grade minor leaguers.
As I said earlier in the thread, Halladay and Lee have 2-3 really good years left. Neither relies on velocity and it's all about location. Get some kids to be groomed for 2-3 years down the road.
This post was edited by Hamilton Lion on 5/23/2012 at 1:37 PM
Hamilton Lion ●
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NotoriousG-Man said...
Its not dumb, its exciting when a local guy makes it to big time in any sport... now, if I were saying to play him over Craig or Berkman, etc just because he is from PA, then thats dumb... but to be hyped about him is cool.
I have seen the kid hit many times... I have seen him in the minors, I have seen him in high school. I know guys from PA that scout minor leagues for a living that have traveled with him in the minors to see him hit... kid can hit, flat out.
For Craig to be anchored at 1B everyday, he still has to stay healthy... so does Beltran, Holiday, Jay... they have enough potential DL stints there to keep him around.
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shavisimo2 ●
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Hamilton Lion said...
Actually, I think the Pirates should trade Hanrahan to the Angels for Trumbo. That is a win-win for both. Joel would give Scioscia a proven closer, while Trumbo solves the revolving door at first in Pittsburgh. I wouldn't give two craps if he hit .240 as long as he blasted 30 bombs per year, which he would do. He can hit it out of Yellowstone. Hanrahan will also be too pricey for Pittsburgh and quite frankly, what is the point of a sub .500 team having one of the best closers in the game today when you can't get him in there to close it out? It's not rocket science here. It's a no brainer. Unless you think Matt Hague is the long term answer - there is nothing on the farm for three years at least.
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2012 MLB Season Thread