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Column: O'Brien going 'four' it

The way Bill O'Brien sees it, keeping the offense on the field on fourth down isn't so much rolling the dice as it is the next move on the chess board.

Bill O'Brien has gone for it on fourth down more times than any other coach in the Big Ten so far.

"You know, when you go for it on fourth down, you can't just all of a sudden go for it," the Penn State head coach said Tuesday. "So your third-down call is more of a second-down call because you're trying to get half the distance to the first down, so it's a manageable fourth down."

The traces of a grin washed over O'Brien's face, as if it dawned on him that his message might seem a little sacrilegious to fellow members of his coaching fraternity.

"I don't think many coaches have said that in a long time," he added.

No, but not that many coaches -- certainly not any who patrolled the Penn State sideline -- have pulled the trigger on fourth down with the frequency O'Brien has in the Nittany Lions' first two games, either.

During the last five seasons, Penn State teams went for it on fourth down an average of 13.6 times per season, which accounted for 14 percent of the total fourth-down chances it had during that span. Through two games under O'Brien, Penn State has already gone for it on fourth down seven times, one more time than Joe Paterno did during the entire 2009 campaign. Those seven occasions account for 35 percent of the 20 fourth-down opportunities the Nittany Lions have had, and they have successfully converted on five of those seven occasions.

It's a trend that isn't likely to change.

"Once we get really close to the 50, I'm pretty much not going to punt it," O'Brien said. "I'm just going to tell you that. Like we're going to go for it, unless it's fourth and forever -- probably punt it. But if it's a manageable fourth down, we're going to go for it and we have some third down/second down calls on fourth downs depending on the distances that we're prepared for. We prepare the kids for it. The kids know we're going to go for it. So I think it's been okay."

You could argue that the major reasons behind O'Brien's aggressive strategy have to do with his reservations about the kicking game. Sam Ficken's field-goal struggles against Virginia have been well-documented, and punter Alex Butterworth has so far been consistently underwhelming. If O'Brien had more productive and reliable players at either position or both spots (or, well, Anthony Fera), he might have a different approach on fourth down this season.

I think, however, that O'Brien's fourth-down strategy serves as a microcosm for what he is trying to do with his team as a whole this season -- Go for broke. Swing for the chin. Play as if you have nothing to lose. Because, really, what does his team have left to lose? The Nittany Lions aren't playing for a bowl game. They can win the Big Ten's Leaders Division but if they do, they can't play for a conference title.

If O'Brien coaches with a chip on his shoulder, his players will play with chips on their shoulders. And that chip might be what this young, depleted, inconsistent team needs to come together.

If nothing else, it makes the game a whole lot more interesting, for players on both sides of the ball.

"I think that's something that brings confidence," wide receiver Allen Robinson said, "because he knows we can get the first down, and it builds confidence in the defense, because he knows they can get a stop in a short field."

"As a defense, we're always urging them on to go for it," cornerback Stephon Morris said. "Just for him to have faith in us means a lot. When we do go for it in those situations and we don't get it, we have to make sure we get their backs and hold them. In years past, we never went for it on fourth and one."

Well, those days are over. And though fans and critics and opponents are watching him closely for a thousand other reasons right now, O'Brien's fourth-down proclivities could earn him some national fame. Remember the coach who spent all summer saying he wouldn't punt? San Diego State's Rocky Long? Through two games, the Aztecs have gone for it on fourth down three times and punted seven.

The Aztecs' coach might be named Rocky, but Penn State's coach is the one going for the knockout.

"There are four downs for a reason," quarterback Matt McGloin said this week.

O'Brien has play calls ready for each of those downs.

Jeff Rice

    • Win, lose, or draw, I really like our coach and his approach to this situation.

      PSUMel ●

    • I see what you did there with "rocky" -- nice article

      fightonstate5

    • Jmaus24

    • "Because, really, what does his team have left to lose?"

      Games. They can lose games by coaching it like it was Madden12 and not an actual football game. Fans want to go for it all the time, but coaches need to be more responsible. Our punting/kicking is lousy, there's no debate there. But going for it isn't always the answer. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I prefer cerebral, field position football to video game football.

      fortheglory94

    • fortheglory94 said...

      "Because, really, what does his team have left to lose?"

      Games. They can lose games by coaching it like it was Madden12 and not an actual football game. Fans want to go for it all the time, but coaches need to be more responsible. Our punting/kicking is lousy, there's no debate there. But going for it isn't always the answer. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I prefer cerebral, field position football to video game football.

      I think BOB's done a pretty good job so far of selecting when to go for it and when to punt/kick. Five of seven says he's doing something right.

      psubills62

    • psubills62 said...

      I think BOB's done a pretty good job so far of selecting when to go for it and when to punt/kick. Five of seven says he's doing something right.

      5 of 7 only means something to me if you scored on that ensuing drive. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor and with our offense letting your defense try and force a turnover deep in the opponents end could be more valuable. I'm not saying to never go for it, but his comments are the complete antithesis of my philosophy. Not to mention every other coach not named Belichick in the football world. Remember 4th & 2 three years ago in Indy.

      It's his call, but I don't have to agree with it either.

      fortheglory94

    • Sean Fitz ‏@seanfitz247
      '@jeffrice247 still working on his pun titles, I see. Work in progress I guess.

      shavisimo2

    • fortheglory94 said...

      "Because, really, what does his team have left to lose?"

      Games. They can lose games by coaching it like it was Madden12 and not an actual football game. Fans want to go for it all the time, but coaches need to be more responsible. Our punting/kicking is lousy, there's no debate there. But going for it isn't always the answer. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I prefer cerebral, field position football to video game football.

      Interesting thought ... I think people in video games that go for it on 4th have faith that their defense can stop it (Much like O'Brien's faith in his defense).

      Certainly the risk of a win or loss is the same ... and to be honest, it's not like PSU is going to fire him this season so I don't think his losses mean much more. Everyone, besides some of us (PSU Fans), expect us to lose most games this year. National expectations are very low and will get lower over the next few years.

      I believe I understand your field position theory and I agree with it, but I think a deeper evaluation of the down, distance, and timing of our 4th downs are the result of more frequent 'go four it' occurances, than catering to a football position game.

      Lang06 ●

    • Going for it on fourth down takes the game away from our special teams, which in our case seems to be a good thing.

      BlueBlood

    • shavisimo2 said...

      Sean Fitz ‏@seanfitz247 '@jeffrice247 still working on his pun titles, I see. Work in progress I guess.

      If I were a trivial or vindictive sort of person, I might point out that "pun titles" would imply that I was giving titles to my puns, which is clearly not the case.

      Fortunately for Mr. Fitz, I would never correct him in any sort of public form, like, say, a message board. whistling

      Jeff Rice

    • fortheglory94 said...

      "Because, really, what does his team have left to lose?"

      Games. They can lose games by coaching it like it was Madden12 and not an actual football game. Fans want to go for it all the time, but coaches need to be more responsible. Our punting/kicking is lousy, there's no debate there. But going for it isn't always the answer. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I prefer cerebral, field position football to video game football.

      Depends on the situation, but there are good arguments to go for it on fourth a whole lot more than most teams do. The average play gains 4-5 yards. Combine that with a terrible punting game and you lose out on a net 20 some yard punt and it makes more sense to go for it and risk the chance you'll gain a few yards than that you will get a decent punt off and gain 30-35 yards. It all depends on the situation. Going for fourth and short tends to be a good move statistically. And playing football like you have 4 downs to get a first instead of 3 can really open things up.

      If BOB analyzes the situation properly (from his personnel to the time of game to the situation), it's a pretty solid strategy. A whole lot depends on BOB's coaching and strategizing.

      shavisimo2

    • fortheglory94 said...

      "Because, really, what does his team have left to lose?"

      Games. They can lose games by coaching it like it was Madden12 and not an actual football game. Fans want to go for it all the time, but coaches need to be more responsible. Our punting/kicking is lousy, there's no debate there. But going for it isn't always the answer. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I prefer cerebral, field position football to video game football.

      Actually, the cerebral approach would be to make decisions based upon statistics...And statistical analysis says going for it on 4th down increases a teams chances of winning...

      In the case of going for it on 4th down, the benefits do not outway the positives. It also allows for unorthodox game calling that provides a strategic advantage.

      The data to support my claims is presented in a paper from Dr. David Romer - "Do Firms Maximize, Evidence from Professional Football." Romer's paper is an analysis of 4th down situations in the NFL and found that NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down more often (especially past the 50 yard line).

      This isn't madden football, it is using statistics to give your team an strategic advantage over your opponent. The same as breaking down coaching tendencies.

      It definitely is a matter of preference, but to trivialize something that works as video game football isn't fair either.

      This post was edited by Lion_in_CBus on 9/14/2012 at 10:37 AM

      Lion_in_CBus

    • fortheglory94 said...

      5 of 7 only means something to me if you scored on that ensuing drive. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor and with our offense letting your defense try and force a turnover deep in the opponents end could be more valuable. I'm not saying to never go for it, but his comments are the complete antithesis of my philosophy. Not to mention every other coach not named Belichick in the football world. Remember 4th & 2 three years ago in Indy.

      It's his call, but I don't have to agree with it either.

      I don't think the final result of the drive determines whether it was a good idea or not. Being able to keep the ball 5 times is always preferable to giving it back to the other team. It's all about opportunity - punting significantly reduces your opportunity to score.

      "...letting your defense try and force a turnover deep in the opponents end could be more valuable." -- when our defense forces 5 turnovers out of 7 opponents drives, then we can talk about this.

      "Remember 4th & 2 three years ago in Indy." -- I do remember that. I also can't think of a time like that when BOB went for it and it supremely backfired. In every instance, it appeared to be the right thing to do. Not to mention that a single case like that doesn't disprove the philosophy. There's been plenty of times when teams punted it, hoping to get the ball back and the other team ran out the clock.

      -- never said you have to agree with it. Just saying that the results right now are showing pretty well. Those results might not be quite as good when we play better D's or when defenses get used to our play calls. But right now, it's working.

      psubills62

    • psubills62 said...

      "Remember 4th & 2 three years ago in Indy." -- I do remember that. I also can't think of a time like that when BOB went for it and it supremely backfired. In every instance, it appeared to be the right thing to do.

      I'll agree to disagree overall with you. But I can't see how anyone thought the decision to go for it on 4th & 4 at the 40(?) with Steven Bench having to come in for his first college snap was the right thing to do. That should have been a punting situation, no way around it. That was the only one I really had a problem with so far.

      fortheglory94

    • fortheglory94 said...

      I'll agree to disagree overall with you. But I can't see how anyone thought the decision to go for it on 4th & 4 at the 40(?) with Steven Bench having to come in for his first college snap was the right thing to do. That should have been a punting situation, no way around it. That was the only one I really had a problem with so far.

      seriously? there was less than a minute i think before halftime and your on the opponents 40 yard line. yeah you could punt. but did you ever think that butterworth is not a very good punter-which means he probably kicks it into the endzone giving you a whopping 20 yard difference in field position, shank it, or it could have gotten blocked and maybe returned for a score considering virginia would have brought an all-out punt block considering field position and time. i thought going for it in that instance is as close to a no-brainer as you could get

      davenit

    • A few points here.

      (1) Economists have done studies that show the risk associated with going for it is dramatically lower than the opportunity cost of punting. If you look at even a bad team, they average 3 yds per play. 3-and-out does not get a first down. 4-down teams do. Statistically speaking, the numbers bear out going for it on 4th unless you're WAY behind the 8-ball.

      (2) See the coach in Arkansas that has won something like 4 of the last 5 state titles. He (almost?) never punts, and his teams throttle people.

      The numbers and anecdotes bear out the value of playing "risky" football.

      psume06 ●

    • psume06 said...

      A few points here.

      (1) Economists have done studies that show the risk associated with going for it is dramatically lower than the opportunity cost of punting. If you look at even a bad team, they average 3 yds per play. 3-and-out does not get a first down. 4-down teams do. Statistically speaking, the numbers bear out going for it on 4th unless you're WAY behind the 8-ball.

      (2) See the coach in Arkansas that has won something like 4 of the last 5 state titles. He (almost?) never punts, and his teams throttle people.

      The numbers and anecdotes bear out the value of playing "risky" football.

      I've always found this whole idea -- the statistical advantages of going for it vs. punting -- very interesting and I'm glad to see a number of you have discussed it. In my opinion, it's very similar to Moneyball, one of my favorite sports books by one of my favorite authors, and the idea that stealing bases can actually hurt an offense more than help it.

      Just as the old-school baseball scouts rejected the Bill James, statistic-based way of thinking, there's an old-school mentality in football that punting is just what you do on fourth down. You play the field position game. That Penn State has gone in one season from the coach who probably embodied that old-school mindset as much as anyone to a coach who, for various reasons, is going directly against it, is fascinating stuff.

      And, as we've shown here, fun to debate.

      Jeff Rice

    • psume06 said...

      (2) See the coach in Arkansas that has won something like 4 of the last 5 state titles. He (almost?) never punts, and his teams throttle people.

      The numbers and anecdotes bear out the value of playing "risky" football.

      Kevin Kelly at Pulaski Academy (Ark) is an interesting case study. Plus your right, its something like he averages less than two punts per SEASON.

      Here is my favorite stat that he always quotes in his interviews (he says it in one or way or another):

      "If you look at the percentages of where we are going to score touchdowns from on the football field, or the percentages of where your opponent can score from, and put it in perspective, you can see some of the reasons we do this." said Kelley "For instance, if we go for it on fourth down on our opponents 10 yard line, and don't convert, percentages say they will score a touchdown 92% of the time. So lets say we punt the ball out to the 40 yard line, and they return it and we give it to them at the 35 yard line, percentages say they will score a touchdown 77% of the time, so there is a 15% difference there, where I have a 50% chance of making it on fourth down, so I like my chances of making it on fourth down, and I think it increases your chances of winning football games."

      Link to quote: http://www.rivals.com/content.asp?cid=888058

      This post was edited by Lion_in_CBus on 9/14/2012 at 12:45 PM

      Lion_in_CBus

    • In probability, expected value matters. In this case, if you're kicking game stinks and your offense is relatively strong, it raises the expected value of going for it rather than kicking/punting. For example, if you have a 60% chance of making a 4th and 5 at the 50 (thereby extending the drive, keeping our D off the field, and maybe adding points) or a near 100% chance of punting for a net of 30 yards, it's reasonable to expect more value out of going for it.

      fullback dive

    • davenit said...

      seriously? there was less than a minute i think before halftime and your on the opponents 40 yard line. yeah you could punt. but did you ever think that butterworth is not a very good punter-which means he probably kicks it into the endzone giving you a whopping 20 yard difference in field position, shank it, or it could have gotten blocked and maybe returned for a score considering virginia would have brought an all-out punt block considering field position and time. i thought going for it in that instance is as close to a no-brainer as you could get

      You should probably do some fact checking before jumping down someone's throat. The play I was referring to was early in the 2nd Qtr. Like I said, he sent in Bench for his first collegiate play and it showed. If you are going to go for it in that situation. at least call a running play. Bench looked terribly shaky there, with good reason.

      fortheglory94

    • fortheglory94 said...

      You should probably do some fact checking before jumping down someone's throat. The play I was referring to was early in the 2nd Qtr. Like I said, he sent in Bench for his first collegiate play and it showed. If you are going to go for it in that situation. at least call a running play. Bench looked terribly shaky there, with good reason.

      Just some clarity - the play in question was "4th and 4 at UVA 33"

      It was definitely out of Ficken's field goal range, it would have been ~ 50 yard attempt (this was before the misses). However, with Buttersworth...your probably giving UVA the ball back at the 20. I have no faith that he would have pooch punted it inside the 20. So by my logic, PSU's net punt is about 13 yards.

      By going for it, you might keep the ball. Not bad logic. Sucks that Bench not McGloin was in there for that play, however.

      However, I agree with your original claim if it had been at the 40 yard line, I would punt. However, at the 33, and less than 5 yards its more vague.

      This post was edited by Lion_in_CBus on 9/14/2012 at 1:28 PM

      Lion_in_CBus

    • Multiple people have used statistics based on NFL data to show that coaches should go for it on 4th down more frequently. However, getting stuffed on 4th is such of momentum changer.

      thefonz

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